Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 16 - October 18, 2020
Published on October 15, 2020 at 2:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend Open Road and Briarcliff's Honest Thief will look to lead the domestic box office in its first weekend of wide release. The Liam Neeson-led action thriller represents the first release for the new
incarnation of Open Road Films, in the distributor's new association with Briarcliff Entertainment. Honest Thief opened in Canada this past weekend and unofficial estimates had the film opening below the Canada-only first weekend
performance of Unhinged back in August (though Honest Thief also played in fewer locations this past weekend than Unhinged did in its weekend of Canada-only release). With a location count of 2,425, Honest Thief
will have the advantage of playing in more locations this weekend than the 1,823 locations Unhinged played in during its first weekend of wide release. Honest Thief will receive an added boost this weekend from playing on PLF screens (including some IMAX screens) and will also benefit from Thursday preview shows. And while in more recent years Liam Neeson hasn't been the box
office draw that he once was, his presence should still help bring some moviegoers to theatres this weekend. Honest Thief could be looking at a first place debut of $3.3 million this weekend
(which would transfer into a per-location average of just over $1,360). That would represent the largest opening weekend performance to date for Briarcliff, just ahead of the company's current best; the $3.01 million launch of Fahrenheit 11/9 back in September of 2018. |
| After a stronger than expected start of $3.62 million last weekend, 101 Studios' The War with Grandpa will hope to hold up well in its second weekend. While critical reviews have been mostly negative for
the Robert De Niro-led family comedy, it appears that the film is going over far better with audiences after receiving a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. The War with Grandpa also held up well throughout its first weekend of
release, as the film had an opening weekend to Friday ratio of 3.29 to 1. The War with Grandpa will face new direct competition for family audiences this weekend from Disney's re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas and will
also face new indirect competition from both Honest Thief and 2 Hearts. The War with Grandpa will be playing in 2,260 locations this weekend (which is 10 more locations than last weekend). A very solid second weekend
decline of 34 percent would give The War with Grandpa a second place take of $2.4 million this weekend. Going forward after this weekend, The War with Grandpa will be helped out by the lack of new competition for family
audiences until Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Croods: A New Age arrives in the marketplace on November 25. |
| It could be a close race for third place between Warner's Tenet and Disney's re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas. Based on updated global estimates, Tenet declined roughly 24 percent
last weekend to take in an estimated $2.0 million. Last weekend's hold was even more impressive when considering that the marketplace as a whole took a hit from the decision of Cineworld to temporarily re-close the vast majority of its
500+ Regal locations in the United States (though theatres re-opening throughout Michigan last weekend also helped to counter-balance that loss). While Tenet shouldn't be losing as many theatres this weekend as it did last
weekend, the Christopher Nolan directed film looks like it will be losing significant screenings per location this weekend (including losing some IMAX showtimes and screens to Honest Thief). A 30 percent decline for Tenet
this weekend would transfer into a $1.4 million take, which would inch the film's total gross past the $50 million domestic mark. |
| Receiving a wide release this weekend is Disney's latest re-issue of Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas. The classic 1993 stop-motion animated film grossed $50.0 million in its initial domestic run
and added another $25.1 million from various re-issues throughout the 2000s (the last being in 2009) for a lifetime domestic total of $75.1 million. The Nightmare Before Christmas is the fourth re-issue from Disney over the past
four weeks; following Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back, Hocus Pocus and Coco. After Hocus Pocus opened with a surprising $1.93 million two weeks ago, Coco was softer than expected last weekend with a
debut of $0.60 million. The re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas is likely to open higher than Coco did (in part from being away from theaters longer than Coco had been), but is also likely to open below
Hocus Pocus (in part from opening in 376 fewer locations than the re-issue of Hocus Pocus did - The Nightmare Before Christmas will be in 2,194 locations this weekend, while Hocus Pocus launched in 2,570). A
per-location average in the area of $615 would give The Nightmare Before Christmas $1.35 million this weekend. |
| Also going into wide release this weekend is Freestyle Releasing's 2 Hearts. The romantic drama stars Jacob Elordi, Adan Canto, Tiera Skovbye and Radha Mitchell. 2 Hearts will be opening in
1,683 locations this weekend and it looks like potential for the film will be limited by the film only getting a few daily screenings at many theatres this weekend (similar to the opening weekend situation for Infidel last month).
Infidel debuted with $1.38 million, while fellow September release The Broken Hearts Gallery opened with $1.13 million. 2 Hearts could be looking at a debut just below the debuts of those films. A per-location
average just under $600 would give 2 Hearts $1.0 million this weekend. |
| After holding up fairly well last weekend by declining 40 percent to take in an estimated $1.16 million, Disney's Hocus Pocus may experience a slightly sharper decline this weekend due to the film continuing
to lose more locations (the film will be playing in 1,640 locations this weekend, down 473 from last weekend's count) and from facing new direct competition from fellow re-issue The Nightmare Before Christmas. A 44 percent
decline for Hocus Pocus this weekend would transfer into $0.65 million for the frame. |
| Also opening this weekend is Sony's The Kid Detective. The film stars Adam Brody and Sophie Nélisse. As of publishing, this weekend's location count for the film isn't available, but similar to Sony's other recent
Stage 6 films (Yellow Rose and The Last Shift); The Kid Detective is expected to open in moderate / semi-wide release this weekend. As was the case with Yellow Rose last weekend, BoxOfficeReport isn't making an
official opening weekend prediction for The Kid Detective this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Honest Thief (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$3.30 M | $3.8 M | N/A | 2 |
| 2 | The War with Grandpa (101 Studios) |
$2.40 M | $7.2 M | -34% | 2 |
| 3 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$1.40 M | $50.3 M | -30% | 8 |
| 4 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (re-issue) (Disney) |
$1.35 M | $1.35 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | 2 Hearts (Freestyle) |
$1.00 M | $1.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Hocus Pocus (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.65 M | $4.6 M | -44% | 3 |
| 7 | Unhinged (Solstice Studios) |
$0.50 M | $20.1 M | -27% | 10 |
| 8 | The New Mutants (Disney / 20th Century) |
$0.45 M | $22.7 M | -36% | 8 |
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