Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 25 - September 27, 2020
Published on September 24, 2020 at 3:15PM Pacific |
| Warner's Tenet will attempt to top the domestic box office for a fourth consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Tenet took in an estimated $4.7 million, with revised global totals for the
film on Monday placing that figure closer to $4.6 million. That represented a decline of roughly 28 percent from the previous frame. This weekend Tenet will receive a boost from theatres throughout parts of California
re-opening (where the film has been performing relatively stronger), but the film will also start to see its number of screenings per location decrease significantly at many locations that have been playing the film for several weeks
now. Those factors could balance one another out this weekend and lead to a percentage decline that is fairly similar to last weekend's decline. A decrease in the neighborhood of 26 percent would place Tenet on target for
$3.4 million this weekend. |
| This weekend will see Trafalgar Releasing launch Break the Silence: The Movie. Break the Silence is the latest BTS music documentary from Trafalgar, which released previous BTS music documentaries
Burn the Stage: The Movie in 2018 and Bring the Soul: The Movie in 2019. Burn the Stage debuted with $3.6 million over four days, while Bring the Soul launched with $4.4 million over five days.
Break the Silence will have a four-day opening beginning today (Thursday) and is likely to see its potential limited by the circumstances of the current theatrical environment
(especially with theatres still closed in a number of larger cities). But a fraction of the BTS fanbase showing up could get the film into second place this weekend (with or without Thursday being counted towards the film's weekend performance)
with respective three-day weekend and four-day grosses of $1.3 million and $1.75 million. |
| Disney and 20th Century's 40th Anniversary re-issue of Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back will be going into wide release this weekend. While grosses officially haven't been reported, the re-issue of
The Empire Strikes Back had been playing from time to time earlier in the year in moderate release while most of the domestic marketplace was closed (perhaps those earlier grosses will be officially reported this weekend).
The Empire Strikes Back will be playing in 2,097 locations this weekend, but potential will still be limited by the film looking to only be getting half a screen at many locations. The film will get an added bump from Thursday
night preview shows. A per-location average of roughly $600 would give Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back a weekend take of $1.25 million. |
| Midweek grosses for Disney and 20th Century's The New Mutants, Cloudburst Entertainment's Infidel and Solstice Studio's Unhinged have been bunched together closely and the three films should
remain close to one another over the weekend. The New Mutants declined 22 percent last weekend and a slightly larger decline of 26 percent this weekend would give the film $1.2 million for the frame (The New Mutants will be playing in 2,305 locations, down 213 from last weekend).
With the aid of expanding to 161 more locations this weekend (for a total of 1,885 locations), Infidel should see a strong percentage hold in its second weekend. A 17 percent decline from last weekend's debut
(and a 24 percent decline from last weekend's per-location average) would put Infidel on course for $1.15 million this weekend. Unhinged decreased a slim 15 percent last weekend and a similar 14 percent decrease this
weekend would give the film $1.1 million for the frame (Unhinged will be playing in 2,182 locations, down 142 from last weekend). |
| While there won't be an opening weekend prediction for either film, this weekend Focus will release Kajillionaire in 529 locations, while Sony will release The Last Shift in an unspecified amount of
locations (likely in either moderate or semi-wide release). |
| As a tribute to late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, both Focus' On the Basis of Sex and Magnolia's RBG will be re-issued this weekend. On the Basis of Sex will be screening in 829
locations, while RBG is estimated to screen in 1,000 locations. Proceeds for the re-issues will be going to the ACLU's Women's Rights Project. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 6 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$3.4 M | $41.0 M | -26% | 5 |
| 2 | Break the Silence: The Movie (Trafalgar Releasing) |
$1.3 M | $1.75 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$1.25 M | $2.3 M | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | The New Mutants (Disney / 20th Century) |
$1.2 M | $19.5 M | -26% | 5 |
| 5 | Infidel (Cloudburst Entertainment) |
$1.15 M | $3.1 M | -17% | 2 |
| 6 | Unhinged (Solstice Studios) |
$1.1 M | $17.3 M | -14% | 7 |
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