Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 11 - September 13, 2020
Published on September 10, 2020 at 2:45PM Pacific |
| After taking first place last weekend in its first weekend of wide release, Warner's Tenet will look to remain in first place this weekend. Through Monday, Tenet had grossed an estimated
$20.2 million domestically. However, that figure included all early Canada grosses and early access preview grosses in the United States, which has to be given consideration when forecasting this weekend's hold. Tenet played in
2,810 locations last weekend and while as of publishing, an official location count has yet to be announced for this weekend; in all likelihood this weekend's location count will be at least somewhat higher than last weekend, as more
theatres continue to re-open throughout parts of the United States. With only one new wide release this weekend (The Broken Hearts Gallery), Tenet will also continue to have a high amount of screenings at most theatres. |
| As for reaction to the Christopher Nolan directed film, the consensus appears to be that Tenet is going over good, but not great with audiences and critics alike (especially with Nolan's lofty standards in mind).
Films typically experience sizeable declines the weekend after Labor Day weekend, but in recent years that has been due in part to high-profile films such as last year's IT Chapter Two, 2018's The Nun, 2017's IT and
2016's Sully all being released over the frame (with each of those films coincidently being a Warner Bros. release). With no blockbuster-level release being unleashed this weekend and the marketplace continuing to be in a state
of rebound, Tenet and the rest of this weekend's holdovers are likely to see stronger than usual holds for the weekend after Labor Day. A second weekend take of $7.5 million for Tenet would likely represent a percentage
decline somewhere in the area of 17 percent to 25 percent from last weekend's unspecified three-day haul and would bring the film's domestic total to roughly $30 million through Sunday. |
| As mentioned, Sony's The Broken Hearts Gallery is the weekend's only new wide release. The Natalie Krinsky directed romantic comedy stars Geraldine Viswanathan and Dacre Montgomery, while Selena Gomez was an
executive producer of the film. Critical reviews for The Broken Hearts Gallery have been good, but overall awareness of the film appears low
(The Personal History of David Copperfield has recently struggled with a similar combination of good reviews and low awareness). The Broken Hearts Gallery will have Thursday night preview shows that begin at 7PM, which
could help give the film the slight edge over The New Mutants for second place this weekend. The Broken Hearts Gallery could debut with $2.0 million this weekend (for a a per-location average of roughly $910 from 2,204 locations), with
strong holding power throughout the rest of September being very possible for the film. |
| With the debut of Tenet now in the past, Disney and 20th Century's The New Mutants and Solstice Studios' Unhinged should both stabilize from last weekend's respective declines. After falling
57 percent last weekend to take in $3.04 million, a 37 percent decrease this weekend would give The New Mutants $1.9 million for the frame. On the heels of last weekend's 31 percent decline to take in $1.81 million, slowing just
17 percent this weekend would place Unhinged at $1.5 million for the frame. This weekend The New Mutants will be playing in 2,704 locations (down 50 from last weekend) and Unhinged will be playing in 2,365 locations (down 37 from last weekend). |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 5 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$7.5 M | $30.2 M | N/A | 3 |
| 2 | The Broken Hearts Gallery (Sony / TriStar) |
$2.0 M | $2.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The New Mutants (Disney / 20th Century) |
$1.9 M | $15.2 M | -37% | 3 |
| 4 | Unhinged (Solstice Studios) |
$1.5 M | $13.8 M | -17% | 5 |
| 5 | Bill & Ted Face the Music (United Artists Releasing / Orion) |
$0.5 M | $3.0 M | -35% | 3 |
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