4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 4 - September 7, 2020
Published on September 3, 2020 at 12:15PM Pacific |
| This weekend the domestic marketplace will have its first potential blockbuster in the world of COVID-19, with the release of Warner's Tenet throughout much (but not all) of the United States. The highly
anticipated Christopher Nolan directed film had already been one of the summer's most anticipated films and should benefit this weekend from the domestic marketplace having gone months without another event film due to the closures and
film delays as a result of COVID-19. While reviews for Tenet have tended to be good instead of great (especially by Nolan's lofty standards), that doesn't seem to be having a toll on the film's initial prospects, especially
after Tenet was off to a very solid $53.6M international launch (including Canada), this past weekend. |
| Grosses for Tenet will be spread out throughout the film's launch, as the film goes wide today (on a Thursday), will then have the four-day Labor Day holiday weekend through Monday, has already had three
days of early access screenings (Monday through Wednesday) through select United States theatres and has been playing in Canada since Wednesday, August 26. The spread out launch of Tenet
(in addition to the marketplace still being in the early stages of re-opening) will make pinpointing the film's debut performance a bit more difficult (especially with early Canadian grosses and United States preview grosses not yet having been released)
and will deflate the film's weekend grosses somewhat as well. Potential for Tenet will also take a significant hit this weekend from theatres in New York and most of California continuing to remain closed. |
| Over the past two weekends, Unhinged and The New Mutants saw respective opening weekend per-location averages of $2,194 and $2,917. Even with the film's spread-out launch, there is little doubt that
Tenet will be able to build upon those per-location average figures. In addition to much greater anticipation, Tenet will also benefit from playing on a large amount of screens at many locations
(in part to make up for seating capacity limits) and from being a much bigger draw on IMAX screens (this past weekend an estimated 9.4 percent of the film's international performance came from IMAX screens alone). With an unofficial
estimated location count of 2,800+ this weekend, a per-location average of $7,500 would give Tenet a three-day weekend take of $21.0 million. That would put the film on course for a four-day weekend of $26.5 million and perhaps
$30.5 million for the film's first five days of wide release. Factoring in the film's unreported early Canada grosses and early access United States screenings could place the total gross for Tenet through Monday in the neighborhood of $38.0 million. |
| It is also worth remembering, that while this weekend's performance is obviously important for Tenet (and the overall marketplace in general), in the bigger picture the film's holding power throughout
September will be even more important. With capacity limits coming into play for the film's launch, more theatres continuing to re-open throughout the country in the weeks ahead and there currently only being three other new wide
releases scheduled during the month of September, the ingredients are certainly there for Tenet to have a lengthy domestic run going forward. |
| After last weekend's first place debut of $7.0 million (from 2,412 locations), Disney and 20th Century's The New Mutants will be adding another 342 locations this weekend to play in 2,754 locations for the
frame. While the theatre count increase (and the four-day holiday frame) will help ease the film's second weekend decline slightly this weekend, The New Mutants should still experience a sharp second weekend decline due to natural
front-loading, poor critical reviews and the added presence of Tenet in the marketplace. A 39 percent decline from last weekend's three-day gross (and a 46 percent decline from last weekend's per-location average), would transfer
into a $4.3 million four-day take for The New Mutants this weekend. |
| Solstice Studios' Unhinged will be adding 71 locations this weekend to play in 2,402 total locations. Unhinged will likely start to see its screenings per location drop significantly this weekend in
the face of Tenet, but at the same time in addition to the four-day frame, the film will continue to benefit from solid word of mouth and relatively strong drive-in grosses. A 23 percent decrease from last weekend's thee-day take
(and a 25 percent decrease from last weekend's per-location average) would put Unhinged on course for a four-day holiday gross of $2.0 million. |
| In their respective second weekends of release, United Artists Releasing and Orion's Bill & Ted Face the Music and Disney and Searchlight's The Personal History of David Copperfield will look to take
fourth and fifth place this weekend. Bill & Ted (which has seen its theatrical potential significantly limited due to simultaneously arriving on PVOD) will be losing 54 locations this weekend to be playing in 953 locations, while
David Copperfield will be adding 190 locations to screen in 1,550 locations this weekend. Thanks in part to the changes in location counts, David Copperfield should have a much better hold than Bill & Ted this
weekend, but Bill & Ted should still have the edge for fourth place. A 38 percent decline from last weekend (and a 34 percent decline from last weekend's per-location average) would give Bill & Ted Face the Music a
four-day take of $700,000, while a 5 percent increase from last weekend (and a slim 7 percent decrease from last weekend's already low per-location average) would place The Personal History of David Copperfield at $500,000 for the
holiday frame. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 5 films at the domestic box office..
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$26.5 M | $38.0 M | N/A | 2 |
| 2 | The New Mutants (Disney / 20th Century) |
$4.3 M | $13.0 M | -39% | 2 |
| 3 | Unhinged (Solstice Studios) |
$2.0 M | $11.6 M | -23% | 4 |
| 4 | Bill & Ted Face the Music (United Artists Releasing / Orion) |
$0.7 M | $2.2 M | -38% | 2 |
| 5 | The Personal History of David Copperfield (Disney / Searchlight) |
$0.5 M | $1.1 M | +5% | 2 |
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