The Memorial Day weekend got off to a nice start yesterday, as we essentially had as close to a three-way tie as you can
get for a single day. My expectations on what would play out on Friday actually ended up being pretty close, as both
The Longest Yard and Madagascar came in about $1 million above what I was thinking, while Revenge of the Sith was right
online with my expectations earlier in the week (though I did think it would come in about $1 million higher when Thursday's
gross was released yesterday afternoon). Whether or not the rest of the weekend plays out as I had expected it to remains
to be seen.
Leading the way on Friday was The Longest Yard. Paramount's positioning of the film as counter-programing to the second
weekend of Revenge of the Sith paid off big time, as the film earned an estimated $15.7 million on Friday. The first place
finish yesterday is likely a surprise to many, but it seemed like a legitimate possibility to me given Sandler's fanbase and
that both Revenge of the Sith and Madagascar will like be much more heavily skewed towards the remainder of weekend due
to their appeal with families. At the same time early word-of-mouth also appears strong, so the film should still see
decent holds throughout the rest of the weekend. Expect The Longest Yard to likely see a 4-Day Weekend to Friday ratio in
the area of 3.83 to 4.15, which would transfer into a 4-day gross in the realm of $60 million - $65 million. A potential
3-day gross in the area of $50 million would represent the largest opening weekend ever for Adam Sandler.
Coming in a very close second yesterday was Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. Episode III grossed an estimated $15.5 million
on its ninth day of release, and has now earned $215.9 million to date. The $15.5 million second place finish marked a 54%
slide from last Friday and a 71% jump from this past Thursday. Three years ago, Attack of the Clones earned $12.8 million
on its ninth day of release, which represented a 48% slide from the week before and a 99% jump over the previous day.
Attack of the Clones went on to earn $60.0 million over the holiday frame, which transferred into a 4-day weekend to Friday
ratio of 4.69. Going back to 1999, The Phantom Menace saw a ratio of 4.95. To this point, the holds for Episode III have
had more in common with the holds for Episode II than the holds for Episode I. With that in mind, Episode III should see a
similar holding pattern to Episode II over the rest of the weekend, with perhaps a slighly weaker Saturday bump but a better
Monday hold. Expect Revenge of the Sith to earn $70 million - $75 million over the 4-day frame, which would represent a
4-day to Friday ratio in the area of 4.50 - 4.85, and bring its 12-day haul to roughly $270 million - $275 million. That
should be enough to squeak out a first place finish for the holiday frame, though Madgascar could still squeak out first
place itself if it experiences a larger-than-expected surge in buisness today.
Rounding out the top 3 yesterday was Madagascar. The computer-animated film from DreamWorks grossed an estimated $14.3
million in its first day of release. It was an impressive start, especially given that Madagascar will likely have the
highest 4-day to Friday ratio among the top three films of the weekend. Last year the studio's Shrek 2 saw a 4-day to
Friday ratio of 4.74 in its second weekend of release, while the studio's Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron saw a ratio of
5.07 in its first weekend of release back in 2002. I'm expecting the film to see holds in between the two over the rest of
the holiday weekend, which suggests that we are looking a 4-day gross in the area of $67 million to $72 million from a ratio
of 4.68 - 5.03. If everything goes in its favor, Madagascar could win the 4-day weekend, though its chances of winning the
3-day portion of the weekend are less likely.
Two of the weekend's holdovers performed better than I had expected, as both Crash and Monster-in-Law held up well,
especially given the added presence of The Longest Yard and Madagascar. Monster-in-Law earned an estimated $2.7 million
yesterday and should earn $12 million - $14 million over the holiday frame. That would bring its 3-week take to roughly
$62 million - $64 million. Crash continued to showcase its tremendous staying power by bringing in $1.3 million yesterday.
The film should earn $5.8 million - $6.8 million over the holiday weekend. That would represent a 05% - 22% jump over last
weekend's $5.5 million 3-day gross and would bring its 4-week total to roughly $36 million - $37 million. Having already
leaped past House of Wax, Crash now appears to have a legitimate chance of outgrossing Kingdom of Heaven domestically as
well. Also earning an estimated $1.3 million yesterday was Kicking & Screaming. That should transfer into a 4-day weekend
of $6 million - $7 million. After a decent opening weekend, the Will Ferrell vehicle has showcased very little staying
power. The film's gross to date will be in the area of $43.5 - $44.5 million as of Monday.
Check back throughout the weekend to see how the 3-way race progresses and ultimately plays out.
