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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 22 - May 25, 2026
Published on May 21, 2026 at 9:45PM Pacific |
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| Disney's Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is set to lead the way at the Memorial Day weekend box office upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The theatrical continuation of The Mandalorian Disney+ series was directed by Jon Favreau and stars Pedro Pascal. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is playing in 4,300 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. While The Mandalorian series went over very well and saw the Grogu character (a.k.a. Baby Yoda) become extremely popular within the greater pop culture, it has also been three years since the most recent season of the series aired. That wait, in combination with The Mandalorian and Grogu being a series continuation (that also carries a lower than usual price-tag for a Star Wars film), as opposed to a completely new concept for a Star Wars film, will no doubt lead to Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu not reaching the same box office heights as previous live-action Star Wars films. At the same time, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu should still deliver a healthy opening weekend performance this weekend (when not comparing it to the opening weekends of Disney's previous Star Wars films over the past decade or so). One of the better opening weekend comparisons for Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu will likely be the significantly more expensive Solo: A Star Wars Story, which had respective three-day and four-day openings of $84.42 million and $103.02 million over Memorial Day weekend back in 2018. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu will likely open a bit lower this weekend, but could potentially hold up better after opening weekend than Solo did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend debuts of $76.0 million and $94.0 million for Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu this weekend. |
| Meanwhile, it could prove to be a close race for second place this weekend between Lionsgate's Michael (in its fifth weekend) and surprise breakout hit Focus' Obsession (in its second weekend of release). Last weekend Michael declined just 31.0 percent to return to first place with $26.14 million, while Obsession exceeded all expectations to debut in third place (just behind The Devil Wears Prada 2) with $17.20 million. Thanks to very strong critical reviews, tremendous word of mouth and last weekend's debut not breaking out even higher due in part to capacity limitations from a relatively moderate wide launch, Obsession has held up extremely well throughout the midweek this week (and has actually been ahead of Michael in the daily rankings since Monday). As more of a weekend film and from having a higher starting point last weekend, Michael will likely go back ahead over Obsession over the holiday weekend, but it could be very close, as Obsession should have the better weekend percentage hold between the two films. Michael could take in $16.8 million over the three-day weekend (which would be a 35.7 percent decrease from last weekend) and $21.5 million over the four-day weekend (which would be a 17.8 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day frame). Obsession could gross $15.8 million over the three-day weekend (for a decline of only 8.1 percent from last weekend) and $20.0 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would represent an exceptional 16.3 percent increase over last weekend's three-day debut). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Disney / 20th Century's The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Amazon MGM Studios' The Sheep Detectives should both have a continued presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend The Devil Wears Prada 2 declined 57.1 percent to take second place with $17.85 million and The Sheep Detectives declined just 36.5 percent in its second frame to finish in fifth place with $9.57 million. Both films should hold up better this weekend, thanks in part to the holiday frame. The Devil Wears Prada 2 could decrease by 45.1 percent to gross $9.8 million over the three-day frame and take in $12.5 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would be a 30.0 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day take). The well-received The Sheep Detectives could decrease 22.7 percent over the three-day frame to gross $7.4 million and could take in $9.8 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would be a 2.4 percent increase over last weekend's three-day gross). |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend are Paramount's Passenger and NEON's I Love Boosters. Passenger, an R-rated horror film directed by André Øvredal and starring Jacob Scipio and Lou Llobell, will be playing in 2,534 locations this weekend. I Love Boosters, an R-rated comedy directed by Boots Riley and starring Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie and Taylour Paige, is opening in an estimated 1,750 locations this weekend. Critical reviews for Passenger have been mixed, while critical reviews for I Love Boosters have been very strong. Box office potential for Passenger should be limited by the film opening in between two other horror films with much higher buzz levels (last weekend's Obsession and next weekend's release of Backrooms by A24). With that said, as the more mainstream of the two films, Passenger is still likely to open higher than I Love Boosters this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day debuts of $8.0 million and $9.7 million for Passenger and respective three-day and four-day openings of $4.5 million and $5.5 million for I Love Boosters. |
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4-Day weekend predictions for the top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) |
$94.0 M | $94.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Michael (Lionsgate) |
$21.5 M | $315.6 M | -18% | 5 |
| 3 | Obsession (Focus) |
$20.0 M | $50.1 M | +16% | 2 |
| 4 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney / 20th Century) |
$12.5 M | $196.0 M | -30% | 4 |
| 5 | The Sheep Detectives (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$9.8 M | $44.3 M | +2% | 3 |
| 6 | Passenger (Paramount) |
$9.7 M | $9.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Mortal Kombat II (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$7.5 M | $74.1 M | -44% | 3 |
| 8 | I Love Boosters (NEON) |
$5.5 M | $5.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$3.6 M | $424.0 M | -20% | 8 |
| 10 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$2.4 M | $339.3 M | -41% | 10 |
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