4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 18 - February 21, 2022
Published on February 17, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| Upon being released domestically this weekend, Sony's Uncharted will look to lead the weekend box office with ease over the Presidents' Day holiday-frame. The action-adventure film based on the
Uncharted video game series from Sony was directed by Ruben Fleischer and stars Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg. Uncharted is opening exclusively in theatres in a very wide 4,275 locations, will be playing on IMAX
screens and will also have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. In addition to the Uncharted video game property, the other big draw for Uncharted is obviously the presence of Holland, who is coming off of the
break-out box office success of fellow Sony release Spider-Man: No Way Home. Break-out potential for Uncharted will likely be limited by the film's mixed critical reviews
(which have been more negative than positive on the average). Internationally, Uncharted was already off to a nice start this past weekend with an estimated $21.5 million from 15 select markets. Last month,
Scream was able to open with $33.86 million over the four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame. While overall buzz for Uncharted may not be that much higher, with a larger location count, an IMAX boost and a
family-friendlier PG-13 rating, Uncharted will have a decent chance of outpacing the four-day opening weekend performance of Scream. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Uncharted will start out with
$36.0 million over the four-day holiday frame, with $30.5 million of that figure coming from the traditional three-day weekend. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is United Artists Releasing and MGM's Dog. The buddy/dog comedy was directed by Channing Tatum and Reid Carolin, and also stars Tatum. Dog is opening exclusively
in theatres this weekend in 3,677 locations and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. As of publishing, not all that many critical reviews for Dog are in, but among initial reviews the film has been going over well
with critics (perhaps surprisingly so). Dog should have some appeal with family audiences this weekend, especially given the lack of new options for family audiences in recent weeks, but at the same time Dog may not play
exactly like a family film given its PG-13 rating. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a distant second place four-day start of $12.3 million for Dog this weekend, with $10.0 million of that figure coming from the traditional three-day weekend.
Beyond this weekend, Dog could have a very good chance of holding up well in the weeks ahead. |
| As for holdovers, despite being in its tenth weekend of release, Sony's Spider-Man: No Way Home will have a good chance of being this weekend's top holdover. Even with competition from Super Bowl LVI, last
weekend saw Spider-Man: No Way Home decline just 21 percent to take fourth with $7.52 million. After surpassing Avatar on Valentine's Day Monday to move into third place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list,
Spider-Man: No Way Home has continued to display strong holding power throughout the midweek (the film's Wednesday performance was down just 11 percent from the previous Wednesday). Spider-Man: No Way Home could take a
small hit from the new direct competition from Uncharted this weekend, but even with that being the case, Spider-Man: No Way Home looks to be in great shape to have another strong hold this weekend, especially with the
aid of the four-day holiday frame. Look for Spider-Man: No Way Home to take third over the four-day weekend with $8.6 million, which would be a 14 percent increase over last weekend. |
| After debuting in first place last weekend with a so-so $12.89 million, Disney and 20th Century's Death on the Nile could fall to fourth place this weekend. While word of mouth looks to be solid for
Death on the Nile (the film received a B rating on CinemaScore) and this past Sunday's performance was deflated by the Super Bowl; at the same time Death of the Nile will be losing a sizable percentage of its showtimes
from last weekend, as well as its IMAX screens to Uncharted. 2017's Murder on the Orient Express also declined a fairly sharp 52 percent during its second weekend of release. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Death on the Nile will place in fourth this weekend with a four-day haul of $8.2 million, which would represent a 36 percent decline from last weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers over the four-day frame, Paramount's Jackass Forever could decline 29 percent to round out the weekend's top five with $5.7 million, Universal's
Marry Me could decrease a similar 31 percent to place in sixth with $5.5 million, fellow Universal release Sing 2 could increase 11 percent to follow in seventh with $3.4 million, Briarcliff's Blacklight could slow
26 percent to claim eighth with $2.6 million and Paramount's Scream could also decline 26 percent to land in ninth with $2.2 million. |
| This weekend will also see LD Entertainment's The Cursed open in wide release. The R-rated horror film was directed by Sean Ellis. On the average, critical reviews for The Cursed have been good.
BoxOfficeReport isn't making an official opening weekend prediction for The Cursed, but the film could debut in tenth place this weekend (ahead of Lionsgate's Moonfall). |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Uncharted (Sony / Columbia) |
$36.0 M | $36.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Dog (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$12.3 M | $12.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony / Columbia) |
$8.6 M | $771.6 M | +14% | 10 |
| 4 | Death on the Nile (Disney / 20th Century) |
$8.2 M | $27.0 M | -36% | 2 |
| 5 | Jackass Forever (Paramount) |
$5.7 M | $47.3 M | -29% | 3 |
| 6 | Marry Me (Universal) |
$5.5 M | $18.7 M | -31% | 2 |
| 7 | Sing 2 (Universal) |
$3.4 M | $147.9 M | +11% | 9 |
| 8 | Blacklight (Briarcliff) |
$2.6 M | $8.0 M | -26% | 2 |
| 9 | Scream (Paramount) |
$2.2 M | $77.3 M | -26% | 6 |
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